Is John McCain a Jonah? - 8Oct2008:

• There was the USS Forrestal.
• And of course, he was shot down, imprisoned, and tortured in Vietnam.
• There was the Keating 5 Savings and Loan failure.
• In this campaign there was the planned campaign event on the Gulf oil rig which was cancelled due to a large oil spill in the Mississippi.
• There was the delay to the opening of the Republican National Convention due to a hurricane.
• And now, there is this financial crisis of truly biblical proportions.

John McCain will survive and thrive, due to his personal position of privilege, due to his personal power and wealth. He sure is unlucky, don't you think?

Voter Turnout - 9Oct2008:

We're all looking at (and talking about) the polls. But it is increasingly becoming about turnout.

In 2004, the turnout push in Ohio during the last 72 hours of the campaign swung the entire election. In this cycle, voting has already begun in a bunch of states including Ohio.

Energizing the base, aka McCain's smear campaign, is about turning out the vote NOW. Everyone who gets scared and votes today is "in the bank."

Now those early voters remain in the pool of voters who are contacted in the polls. They constitute a small but rapidly increasing percentage.

As their numbers grow, so too does the problem in interpreting the meaning of the polls. Early voters can still "change their minds" on polling questions, but their vote is fixed. They also effect the exit polling we will see on election night, since they will be outside the voter pool which is "polled" leaving their polling place.

The important piece of this for now is that the polls we see today are becoming more prone to significant errors because McCain's campaign is likely amplifying the turnout of his base.