Sunday, May 17, 2009

Abuse Photo Release Could Destroy Pakistan

There is a second, very important, and unnamed issue behind President Obama's decision to oppose release of more prisoner abuse photos. Consider the time factor.

There is a court order in place ordering the release of 21 photos by May 28. To avoid being forced to comply, the Dept. of Defense, must file a motion with the Supreme Court before then. If the Supreme Court refuses to hear the motion, which could happen with days of the filing, the court order to release remains.

Under this likely scenario President Obama's decision represents a short term delay and will limit the release to 21 photos rather than 2000.

The primary focus of this is almost certainly the current very hot war against Taliban insurgents in Pakistan. That situation is highly unstable and includes literally millions of "soft" targets, viz. civilian and particularly displaced Pakistanis. If the civilian population of Pakistan becomes inflamed at this truly critical moment, a localized battle against a foreign insurgency could turn into a broader rebellion accompanied by significant nationwide unrest.

This is the only highly time critical US interest which could see a significant impact from the release of the photos.

Caveat: I have been unable to confirm the date of the court order, the issueing court, and the fact that there are no other cases involving these photos.

No comments: